Methodology Technology Outlook
In order to establish the position of individual technologies within the four-quadrant diagram, eight parameters have been assessed for each technology: 2017 revenue, market potential in the next five years, legal and regulatory framework in Switzerland, acceptance within Swiss society, number of relevant academic research groups in Switzerland, competence of these academic research groups expressed by their average h-index3, number of companies in Switzerland with R&D activities in a given field, competence of these companies by international standards. In a second step, value ranges for each parameter have been transposed into a point system:
Point System
2017 revenue (R), based on estimates provided by experts, sector and company reports, statistic databases and Internet research:
| Value (in million CHF) | <10 | 10-99 | 100-499 | 500-999 | ≥1000 |
| Points | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Market potential in the next five years (M), estimates provided by experts:
| Value | small | medium | large | very large |
| Points | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
Legal and regulatory framework in Switzerland (FL), assessment provided by experts:
| Value | unfavourable | neutral | optimal |
| Points | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Acceptance within Swiss society (FS), assessment provided by experts:
| Value | hindering | neutral | encouraging |
| Points | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.1 |
Number of relevant academic research groups in Switzerland (RA), based on information provided by experts and Internet research:
| Value | <10 | 10-19 | 20-39 | 40-49 | ≥50 |
| Points | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Competence of academic research groups (CA), based on the average h-index of research groups in Switzerland working in a given field4:
| Value | <20 | 20-34 | ≥35 |
| Points | 0.8 | 1 | 1.2 |
Number of companies in Switzerland with R&D activities in a given field (RI), based on information provided by experts, sector and company reports and Internet research:
| Value | <10 | 10-29 | 30-69 | 70-99 | ≥100 |
| Points | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
Competence of these companies by international standards (CI), assessment provided by experts:
| Value | low | medium | high |
| Points | 0.8 | 1.0 | 1.2 |
Transposition of parameter values into positions on the horizontal and vertical axes of the four-quadrant
diagram:
A technology’s position on the horizontal axis (economic significance) is computed using the following formula:
R * (M + FL + FS)
Parameters are given different weightings. Revenue, which is based on sound figures, is defined as the main parameter, while the other three parameters act as modulators. The influence of market potential on the development of revenue is assessed as greater than the influence of the legal and regulatory framework, whose influence is in turn considered greater than that of social acceptance. This weighting is reflected in the transposition of parameter value ranges into the point system.
A technology’s position on the vertical axis (available competence) is computed using the following formula:
RA * CA + RI * CI
The numbers of academic and industrial research groups are defined as the two main parameters, modulated by their respective competence. This is reflected in the transposition of parameter value ranges into the point system.
These calculations yield values between 2.1 and 19.5 for the horizontal axis and between 1.6 and 12 for the vertical axis. In order to provide better visualisation, these values were converted using a linear transformation, yielding a minimum possible value of 0.0 and a maximum possible value of 10.0 for both axes.